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With just four weeks to go in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the action on the track will be intense as drivers battle for a spot in the playoffs.
Cup drivers will travel to Richmond, Mich., Daytona and Darlington before the 16-driver playoff field is determined. Twelve drivers have secured at least one win this year (Austin Cindric, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez), leaving four spots up for grabs.
In addition to the main focus on who will make the playoffs, here are four important story threads to watch in the coming month:
Driver Market Movement
Most teams are expected to finalize their 2025 rosters over the next month.
Available spots exist with teams such as Spire, Front Row, Kaulig and Rick Ware Racing. Additionally, Trackhouse and 23XI Racing could each add a third team. Trackhouse seems inclined to go with Shane van Gisbergen for its Cup car, while 23XI will likely take Riley Herbst, which would bring additional Monster Energy funding.
Justin Haley could return to Spire, replacing Corey LaJoie, who could trade places with him at Rick Ware Racing. Zane Smith could return to Front Row, which has also been in talks with Sam Mayer, who has financial backing.
Kaulig and Rick Ware Racing’s decisions could hinge on sponsorship. It hasn’t been determined yet whether any of their current Cup drivers will return. AJ Allmendinger has expressed a willingness to do what Kaulig needs and hasn’t ruled out a Cup return.
Contract negotiations
A few weeks ago, the teams made a counteroffer to NASCAR, but since then there appears to have been little to no meaningful dialogue.
While it was hoped that an agreement would be reached by early summer, it now seems more likely that it will be reached in the fall. Teams want the charters to be permanent and are seeking a larger share of TV and other media revenue.
The next hurdle could be whether the teams agree to a seven-year deal, matching the current television package (2025-2031), rather than seeking a longer-term contract. That might be more feasible, and the teams could hope that NASCAR chairman Jim France, at age 79, will hand NASCAR over to his nephew, Ben Kennedy, before the next negotiation (with Kennedy potentially more receptive to the team owners’ demands).
Teams may opt out of the next installment of the Netflix sports series, using the situation as leverage to gain concessions on the charter agreement, SportsBusiness Journal reports.
2025 Program Announcement
Remember when there were rumors going around back in May that the program would be released earlier than expected?
Well, the answer was “later.”
It should be announced this month. Emphasis on “should.”
Gateway is likely headed to the playoffs, as are Darlington and possibly New Hampshire. Atlanta (already announced) returns in the summer, as do Watkins Glen and Homestead in the spring.
Mexico City? It varies from week to week, is it a given or a question. If it were to happen, Richmond is the most likely track to miss a date.
Iowa (new for 2024), Chicago Street Circuit (with a deal with the city that can be canceled until January) and COTA (leased by Speedway Motorsports for NASCAR races) are expected to return to the Cup schedule.
Despite some buzz about Rockingham, it is not expected to be part of the Cup schedule. More likely, other national series races will be held there.
Richmond and tires
NASCAR will provide teams with two sets of softer tires for this weekend at Richmond, the same “option” tires used at North Wilkesboro, which did not wear as quickly as expected. However, the Richmond surface is much harder than North Wilkesboro.
In the spring, teams were issued nine sets (eight new sets and one used set) of standard tyres and for this 400-lap race they will have just seven (six new sets and one used set) available, in addition to the two softer sets.
When teams tested the softer tires in Iowa earlier this year, they only lasted 15 laps. So teams aren’t sure how many laps they can do before significant wear occurs.
NASCAR hopes to allow teams a 45-minute run Saturday in Richmond to evaluate the softer tire’s wear (and speed). That’s weather permitting, as Tropical Storm Debby may not be kind to the area Saturday.
It remains to be seen whether NASCAR will use the softer rubber in any playoff races. Richmond won’t be the only track where teams could be stumped by tire wear as the series heads toward the playoffs. In a Bristol tire test last month, drivers encountered the same faster-than-expected wear issues as in the spring. Initially, temperature was thought to be a factor, but it now appears Bristol’s cement-resin combination is causing durability issues.
However, if all teams know what to expect, they can potentially race accordingly. Whether NASCAR will provide extra sets of tires beyond the original plan is yet to be determined.
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